Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
